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    MERCURY SYSTEMS (MRCY)

    MRCY Q4 2025: Record EBITDA Margin, FCF Positive on $30M Pull-Forward

    Reported on Aug 12, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$53.58Last close (Aug 11, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$58.39Open (Aug 12, 2025)
    Price Change
    $4.81(+8.98%)
    • Accelerated Deliveries and Strong Free Cash Flow: Executives highlighted the successful acceleration of approximately $30,000,000 in revenue from FY26 into Q4, which boosted free cash flow beyond breakeven. This pull-forward strategy demonstrates the company's ability to generate robust cash flow even when revenue impact is minimal.
    • Margin Expansion Through High-Mix Bookings: The Q&A emphasized that increasing higher margin backlog and improved mix directly supported a significant uplift in EBITDA margins, as evidenced by Q4’s record performance. This operational leverage is expected to drive further margin expansion over time.
    • Favorable Market Tailwinds and Pipeline Opportunities: Management noted strong conversations with domestic and European customers, including potential incremental opportunities from Golden Dome–related contracts and existing systems acceleration. These positive market signals and customer relationships suggest added upside potential for future bookings.
    • Revenue Pull-Forward Risk: The company accelerated approximately $30 million of deliveries from FY26 into Q4, which may boost current margins but reduces future revenue visibility and could lead to a shortfall in sustainable topline growth later.
    • Unbilled Receivables Concern: Significant capacity is being allocated to programs tied to unbilled receivables that generate cash flow without corresponding revenue, potentially straining future revenue growth and margin sustainability.
    • Golden Dome Uncertainty: The lack of concrete guidance on the timing and impact of the Golden Dome initiatives leaves uncertainty regarding their contribution to future revenue and margins, posing a risk if anticipated awards or accelerations do not materialize.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue Growth

    FY 2026

    mid-single digits

    low single digits

    lowered

    Adjusted EBITDA Margin

    FY 2026

    low double digits

    mid-teens

    raised

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2026

    Q4 expected around breakeven with full‑year FCF ahead of prior expectations

    Expected to be positive

    raised

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Revenue Pull-Forward

    Mentioned consistently in Q1 with accelerated revenue from Q2 and in Q2 noting a $30 million pull-forward , as well as in Q3 where the strategy shifted revenue timing but maintained full‐year expectations.

    In Q4, the company again accelerated approximately $30 million of revenue into the quarter, positively impacting top‐line growth and EBITDA margins, while warning that FY26 outlook would reflect this pull-forward.

    Consistent topic across periods; sentiment remains positive with continued emphasis on acceleration, though with caution for future guidance.

    Margin Expansion through Higher‐Margin Production Contracts

    Q1 discussions highlighted a strong production mix with over 90% production-related bookings supporting higher margins ; Q2 emphasized the shift from development to production contracts with margins 1,000 basis points higher ; Q3 reinforced steady progress with improved backlog margins.

    In Q4, Mercury reported backlog margin improvements, with higher-margin production contracts driving an 18.8% adjusted EBITDA margin, reflecting further operational efficiencies and margin expansion.

    Consistent upward trend; steady transition to higher-margin contracts with enhanced operational performance over time.

    Free Cash Flow Generation and Operational Efficiency Improvements

    Q1 reported a negative free cash flow that improved from -$47.1M to -$20.9M ; Q2 noted record free cash flow of $82M with major operating expense reductions and efficient working capital management ; Q3 demonstrated improved free cash flow generation and expense reductions.

    Q4 delivered $34M quarterly free cash flow and a record FY free cash flow of $119M, driven by reduced net working capital and further operating expense cuts, along with improved gross margins.

    Continuous improvement across quarters, with a marked positive shift in cash flow and operational efficiency in Q4.

    Production Pipeline Strength and Key Contract Wins

    Q1 highlighted over 90% production mix and significant contract awards ; Q2 reported solid bookings of $242M and several key defense contracts ; Q3 noted $200M in bookings and multiple follow-on orders.

    Q4 achieved record quarterly bookings of $342M and a record backlog of $1.4B with multiple high-value contracts, underlining strong demand and production pipeline strength.

    Robust and growing; contracts and backlog continue to strengthen, reflecting improved market demand.

    Technical Advancements in Common Processing Architecture

    Q1 showed progress in CPA with corrective actions and ramp-up efforts ; Q2 detailed ramp-up to full-rate production and competitive wins ; Q3 highlighted a $40M production contract and integration of cybersecurity via Starlab.

    Q4 secured $36.9M in new production awards related to CPA, with continued improvements in backlog margins and strategic leveraging of technical advancements.

    Consistent progress; steady technical improvements and favorable contract wins enhance competitive differentiation.

    Golden Dome Initiative Uncertainty

    No discussion in Q1 and Q2; Q3 mentioned Golden Dome with a positive bias as part of the overall defense market trends.

    Q4 explicitly addressed uncertainty around Golden Dome by excluding its potential impact from FY26 outlook due to unclear timing and magnitude.

    New and evolving; emerging topic with a shift from earlier positive sentiment in Q3 to cautious uncertainty in Q4.

    Legacy Lower‐Margin Backlog Challenges

    Q1 cited lower gross margins and adverse EAC adjustments from legacy contracts ; Q2 explained the natural turnover of low-margin backlog and challenges from low-margin development programs ; Q3 reiterated steady burning off of lower‐margin books with gradual improvements.

    Q4 acknowledged that legacy lower‐margin backlog still impacts margins but noted progressive improvements through conversion to higher-margin bookings and expect further improvement into FY26.

    Ongoing challenge with gradual improvement; legacy issues remain but are being mitigated over time.

    Deferred Revenue and Unbilled Receivables Impact

    Q1 reported increases in deferred revenue (+$22M sequentially, +$38M YoY) alongside a decrease in unbilled receivables (-$6M sequentially, -$90.3M YoY) ; Q2 showed significant progress with deferred revenue increases and substantial unbilled receivables reductions ; Q3 had similar trends with increased deferred revenue and reduced unbilled amounts.

    Q4 saw deferred revenue rise by approximately $53M YoY and a notable decrease of unbilled receivables by about $26M YoY, reflecting improved working capital management and effective milestone billing.

    Consistently managed; continuous improvement in working capital with effective deferral and receivables management across periods.

    Book-to-Bill Ratio and Order Intake Concerns

    Q1 reported a robust ratio of 1.21 with 90% production mix and strong follow-on orders ; Q2 cited a trailing 12-month ratio of 1.12 and strong order flow ; Q3 showed a quarter dip to 0.95 but a trailing 12-month average of 1.1, with management attributing the dip to timing.

    Q4 reported a book-to-bill ratio of 1.13 with record bookings and a healthy backlog, indicating strong order intake despite recent pull-forward acceleration impacting near-term visibility.

    Overall stable and positive over time; minor fluctuations acknowledged but long-term trends and quality orders remain strong.

    Customer Market Tailwinds and Growth in High-Growth Subsegments

    Q1 did not specifically mention these topics; Q2 initiated discussion by targeting high-growth defense electronics and subsegments such as sensors, EW, and C4I ; Q3 further emphasized positive market tailwinds with an overall favorable DoD environment and record awards activity.

    Q4 reinforced a positive outlook driven by favorable defense budgets, European market growth, and increased customer conversations about accelerating production, indicating broad market tailwinds and growth opportunities in high-growth subsegments.

    Emerging focus with increasing emphasis; absent in Q1, progressively detailed from Q2 to Q4 with a clearly optimistic outlook on market opportunities.

    Supply Chain and Workforce Stability

    Q1 highlighted stable supply chain performance and no major workforce constraints ; Q2 had minimal detail, though some restructuring was mentioned; Q3 provided limited discussion with reference to tariff management.

    Q4 provided detailed insights on actively managing supply chain constraints by optimizing factory capacity and highlighted organizational realignment that has led to reduced operating expenses, with workforce stability maintained.

    Increasing emphasis in Q4; while stability was maintained across earlier periods, Q4 shows a concentrated focus on optimizing supply chain processes and workforce efficiency.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Will margins fall into the 20s?
      A: Management expects gross margins to continue improving over time with a mix shift toward higher margin backlog and stable operating expense levels, keeping margins in the mid-teens with prospects for further gradual expansion.

    2. Revenue Pull-Forward
      Q: Does pull-forward hurt FY26 revenue?
      A: They explained that accelerating $30M of deliveries into Q4 improves free cash flow without materially boosting revenue in FY26, as capacity used for unbilled programs does not generate additional revenue.

    3. Unbilled Receivables
      Q: Why do unbilled receivables delay revenue?
      A: Management noted that older contracts, where revenue is mostly recognized upfront, create large unbilled receivables that consume capacity for cash collection rather than new revenue, though this supports strong free cash flow.

    4. Golden Dome Pipeline
      Q: When will Golden Dome awards materialize?
      A: They clarified that near-term opportunities are driven by accelerating existing programs; while Golden Dome elements are in discussion, it is too early to predict a significant run rate impact from new awards.

    5. Bookings Mix
      Q: How robust is the contract bookings mix?
      A: Management highlighted a solid mix of production and development awards, including notable common processing architecture contracts, which bolsters a record backlog and underpins future margin expansion.

    Research analysts covering MERCURY SYSTEMS.